With Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas claiming that he will not seek reelection in scheduled elections in January, speculation abounds on who will run. Additional speculation revolves around whether Abbas will renege on his decision to not seek reelection. Abbas reportedly feels frustrated with the failed peace process and the lack of unity among Palestinians. Moreover, his age continues to be a factor, with the leader in his 70s.

The potential candidates to replace Abbas as head of the party include:

• Abu Maher Ghneim- the current Fatah deputy, although he lakes major support among the Palestinian population;
• Mohammed Dahlan- a veteran Fatah official who faces significant opposition from Hamas;
• Marwan Barghouti- an immensely popular politician currently being held in an Israeli prison, although he may be released in a prisoner exchange deal. He is viewed as one of the only Palestinians that could garner support from Hamas sympathizers;
• Nasser al-Qudwa- a former PLO ambassador that lived in exile for years and only recently returned to the Palestinian territories.

Meanwhile, a great bitterlemons collection of articles examines the issues involved in Abbas’ decision. The series includes a particularly interesting interview with Palestinian professor Said Zeidani on a sucessor for Abbas. Zeidani says:

“The movement is split, it’s not as unified as it should be and there continues to be infighting and intrigue. I think it would be difficult for Fateh members to unite around another candidate. I cannot single out any one candidate that could unify Fateh behind him. Abu Mazen, because of his affinity with Arafat and his history, was a natural candidate when Arafat passed away. There is no one similar at the moment.”…

“ I think we have to look at the leadership of the national movement in two parts. First there will be a contest for the leadership of the PLO. Then there will be a contest for the leadership of the Palestinian Authority. I can see the two positions being divided between two different leaders. There are no emerging leaders who can occupy the two positions together.

“The Fateh movement will fight on both tracks, which might be good for the movement. The competition for top posts could perhaps solve some of the infighting in the party. But there will be a fierce struggle for succession.”

Both Israeli and American officials expressed concern over Abbas’ decision, sentiments that follow a particularly difficult week due to recent overtures from the Obama Administration that the United States will step down pressure on Israel to halt settlement activity.

Israeli President Shimon Peres said:

“If you leave the Palestinians would lose their chance for an independent state… Stay, for the Palestinian people’s sake.”

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said:

“Of the existing alternatives, if we want an agreement with the Palestinians then Abbas is the best partner… The best partner is Abbas, but any Israeli intervention in internal Palestinian politics would only do harm.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said:

“It’s important for both sides to adhere to the principle of negotiating to advance an arrangement… I suggest making every effort to reach a two-state-for-two-peoples arrangement, while preserving Israel’s security interests.”

Photo from Ma’an News.