
Assumptions and a lack of patience have sunk prospects of obtaining a stable Middle East, according to a new book co-written by one of the architects of U.S. policy towards the region over the last 20-years. Myths, Illusions, & Peace, the sweeping Middle East analysis work released last month from White House Special Assistant Dennis Ross and Washington Institute for Near East Policy fellow David Makovsky, received significant press for attempting to debunk the ‘linkage’ argument. This theory states that regional problems would immediately disappear through a resolution of the Israel-Palestine problem. However, other parts of the book should receive considerable examination due to the depth and nuances illuminated by the authors.
The book’s intricate examination of the need for democratization in the region –particularly through an evaluation of the Palestinian Authority- dismantles serious myths held by the Bush administration and provides an outline for future U.S. efforts to introduce democratic reforms. Even though U.S. and Israeli commentators and analysts recently amplified their arguments against the need for sustained cooperation, the authors also defend the U.S.-Israel partnership as vital for both nations.
The authors do not dismiss the need for democratization in the Middle East; they simply condemn the methods used by the Bush Administration, strategies that they claim failed to grasp the regional context. Instead of forging the institutions need for proper democratic reform, previous U.S. efforts focused on the need for early elections that often, such as with the 2006 Palestinian elections, resulted in popular support and legitimacy obtained by terror organizations. The election victory of Hamas in 2006 led the United States to distance itself from the electoral process in the Palestinian territories, thereby leaving the United States prone to criticisms of hypocrisy. The U.S. government failed to consider all the potential outcomes of the elections, and therefore backed away from support for the premature electoral.
The authors further contend that the previous administration failed to address the fact that rulers in the region fought democratic reform in order to maintain centralized power. Moreover, democratic reform mandates -first and foremost- the military, political, and judicial force necessary to maintain stability. The authors write,
“Certainly that has been the case for the Palestinians. Mahmoud Abbas, as president of the Palestinian Authority, might declare a policy of one authority, one law, and one gun, but he lacked the capability to enforce it.”
Instead, the authors urge the United States to discard its “one size fits all” approach to democracy promotion in exchange for a multi-tracked, malleable tactic. The United States should focus efforts on establishing and maintaining democratic institutions, such as non-governmental organizations and the free press, while supporting grassroots activists that promote a democratic agenda. Further, the authors urge U.S. officials to initiate democratic reforms that enable freer speech and provide broader rights to all citizens in the region. Moreover, the authors contend that elections can only occur after other democratic initiatives take root and must include preconditions, such as the omission of militant parties from the electoral process. In order to achieve ballot eligibility, organizations like Hamas must dismantle their militias.
The authors express the need to bolster the regional standing of certain regional democracy proponents, notably Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. They applaud his efforts for transparency within the Palestinian Authority, an institution plagued by corruption and thieves. Serving as various positions within the government, Fayyad received international acclaim for embarking on economic reforms that prevent embezzlement and abuse of funding. In a recent poll of Palestinians, the most recent Fayyad-led government received a 46-percent legitimacy rating compared to Hamas’ 20-percent. These figures show that Fayyad carries at least some weight within Palestinian politics.
Through all these initiatives, the United States can foster an environment that would support a young democracy. This stance clearly mirrors a previous doctrine encouraged by Ross, the ‘ripeness’ theory. He previously contended that Arab-Israel peace can only occur when the conditions are ‘ripe’ for peace. Any U.S. attempts to impose peace would fail without ‘ripe’ conditions, although the government could encourage policies that would help create an environment to foster peace. The authors apply this same ripeness theory to democratization; the United States must encourage the creation of an appropriate atmosphere for democracy to fully take root, not impose it blindly.
In the wake of recent policy clashes between the Obama and Netanyahu administrations, the authors of the book also provide an impassioned defense of the U.S.-Israel relationship. They dismantle arguments suggesting that U.S. support for Israel contradicts national interests. The two countries share various interests, including the need to dismantle terror infrastructure and prevent nuclearization in the region, requiring close cooperation between the two governments. The authors contend that U.S. military support for Israel maintains stability in the region because Arab nations know that joint U.S.-Israel force could destroy any joint-Arab military initiative. Moreover, an Israeli nuclear weapon has not initiated of an arms race; conversely, an Iranian nuclear weapon would require other Arab nations to commence a nuclear program. The book shares the following anecdote:
“As one Arab official told us confidentially, ‘We know Israel has a bomb in the basement, but Israel keeps it in the basement. On the other hand, if the Iranians get the bomb, they will wave it. This will cause problems.’”
Moreover, they defend the “shared values” argument for the need to maintain close ties between the two nations. The authors describe Israel as a “sister democracy in a region that has largely been hostile to democracy.” They contend that the U.S. government should be supporting democratic regimes, especially when they flourish in regions predisposed to authoritarianism. Moreover, they support the argument by citing public opinion, noting that the population of Israel remains adamantly pro-America. However, the authors neglect to include a laundry list of shared values and how they are represented within Israeli society.
Overall, the book provides a clearly pro-Israel posture to regional relations. However, the rationale for recommended policy solely represents the interests of the United States. Advancing democratic ideals, pursing Middle East peace, and maintaining a strong relationship with Israel, ensures stability in the region that only serves to support U.S. security, both militarily and economically. These initiatives would likely transform extremist organizations into fringe elements, thereby limiting the chance of additional terror strikes on Americans. Moreover, by ensuring security and stability in the region, investors and financial institutions could invest in the Middle East without fear from the consequences of today’s fickle regional situation. The book clearly demonstrates that democratization and the resumption of a peace process require patience and multi-pronged approaches that avoid the sinkholes of previous misconceptions on the region.
Photo taken from Amazon.com
See David Makovsky’s website at http://davidmakovsky.com.